Second Round has been Completely Unpredictable

By Michael Rothman
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The second round of the 2006 NBA Playoffs has been all it was hyped to be.  With the exception of the Miami vs. New Jersey series, all the games have been very close. Upsets have been scattered throughout this round, and Lebron has stepped up big time. One of the biggest surprises has the defending champions on the ropes and clinging to their playoff lives. If you picked your teams wisely, you could have taken your sportsbook to the cleaners this week. Let’s take a look at what has transpired over the past few days.

Western Conference

#1 Spurs vs. #4 Mavericks

The Mavericks lead this series 3-1 heading into Wednesday night’s game 5 in San Antonio. They have really stepped up their game, and now look like the favorites to win the Western Conference. Their 123-118 overtime victory in game four showed heart and resilience, especially coming back from a five-point deficit in the closing seconds to send the game into overtime. It’s hard to pick the Spurs in this series when Duncan and Parker both scored 31 and 33 respectively, and still lost game four. Mavericks guard Devin Harris has been the sparkplug for Dallas, and the team is 3-0 since inserting him into the starting line-up in game two. I can only hope you have been taking the team getting the points, like I recommended, because in three of the four games, the total differential has been 8 points. This might change in game five, with the Spurs heading home and their backs against the wall. I think the Spurs will have a breakout game, but winning three in a row is a lot to ask. Mavericks in six.

#2 Suns vs. #6 Clippers The Suns just won’t die. After pulling off a three-game comeback against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Suns won a wild one Tuesday night to take a 3-2 games advantage over the Clippers. Shawn Marion was absolutely gigantic in the Suns’ 125-118 double overtime victory, with 36 points and a mind-blowing 20 rebounds. The league’s MVP, Steve Nash, also chipped in with 17 points and 13 assists. This series has been to the Suns’ liking, with at least one team scoring 100 points in four of the five games. The Clippers travel back to Los Angeles Thursday, and look for the Clippers to try to slow the pace down and feed the ball to their big man, Elton Brand. He has also been huge in this series, averaging 30 points per game and 10.4 rebounds. Take the Clippers in game six, Phoenix in game seven.

Eastern Conference

#1 Pistons vs. #4 Cleveland

To me, this is the biggest shock of the playoffs. Not because the Cavaliers even have a slim chance of upsetting the Pistons and winning the series, because they don’t. No, this has been a huge shock because of the way they have played, and the fact that this series will now go six games. Don’t get me started on Lebron, because I think he is turning into one of the greatest ever, right before our eyes. Mr. James recorded his second triple-double of the playoffs in game three with 21 points, 10 assists and 10 boards, and almost repeated the feat in game four. As great as he is and will be, this cannot last. The Pistons will return home for game five with a huge chip on their shoulders. This is a championship team and will prove it Wednesday night. The Pistons are not giving up too many points for game five at -10.5, because of the last two losses. Therefore, take Detroit in game five with a comeback and to win the series in six.
#2 Heat vs. #3 Nets This one had the makings of a great series, but looks can often be very deceiving. After being blown out 100-88 in game one, the Heat came surging back to win four in a row, including two in New Jersey. The Heat closed out the series Tuesday night 106-105 in game five. The story of the series was not Shaq or Dwane Wade, but the supporting cast. Antoine Walker was electric for the Heat in games four and five, putting up 20 and 23 points in the two victories. Udonis Haslem was also a key factor in game four, with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Shaq is just not getting the calls and is consistently in foul trouble, but if this supporting cast can continue to play at a high level, the Heat will be a force to reckon with in the Conference Finals. Well, there you have it. It has been a wild, wild week in the NBA, but if you play your cards right, there is money to be made. Overall, taking the points has been a smart decision, with most of the games coming down to the wire. Make sure to check back next week, because I will have a complete analysis of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.

Heat Is Dominating Nets, Even if O'Neal Is Not

Already scarred with stitches on his chin and lower lip as a result of physical low-post play, Nets power forward Jason Collins might have sounded a bit masochistic Sunday, after the Nets lost to the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Championship semifinal series.

Collins seemed to be asking for more time going head-to-head against Heat center Shaquille O'Neal, the N.B.A.'s most dominant bruiser, a man whose flailing elbows have been said to leave a scar or two.

"We need to do a better job of making Shaq beat us," Collins said, adding that he wanted to "basically, go one on one and say, 'Shaq, go to work.' "

Or maybe Collins's comments simply highlight a peculiar aspect of this best-of-seven series. The Nets have held O'Neal to relatively modest numbers, yet the Heat has rolled to a three-games-to-one lead entering Tuesday night's game in Miami.

O'Neal has averaged 19 points and 8.3 rebounds in the series, significantly below his career playoff averages of 26.6 points and 12.5 rebounds entering this postseason.

Of course, O'Neal's sidekick, guard Dwyane Wade, has shown enough star power to carry the Heat. He is averaging 29.3 points, 6 rebounds and 6.8 assists against the Nets.

The Nets' Richard Jefferson said no one should be surprised by O'Neal's statistics because they were similar to his averages this season. O'Neal averaged 20 points during the regular season and 19.4 points during last year's playoffs.

NBA Playoffs

Miami Heat #2 vs. New Jersey Nets #3 The Heat has to figure out a way to beat New Jersey. After Monday's 100-88 Game 1 loss to the Nets, against all Sportsbook odds, the Heat is now 1-4 against New Jersey, which isn't promising in this best-of-seven second-round series. "We have to understand these guys are here to play and if we don't come out with energy from the beginning then we're going to have the same results in the next game" forward Udonis Haslem said. Miami, which shot .478 during the regular season, shot .414 against the Nets in the regular season and .391 in Game 1. Miami trailed 12-2 in the first quarter and never got anything going. "That wasn't the way we wanted to start," coach Pat Riley saidMiami committed nine first quarter turnovers and never recovered as it lost, 100-88, to the Nets. New Jersey's transition and fast-break offense hurt the Heat badly. Miami's 39.1 field goal percentage allowed Jason Kidd to run the break to near perfection. "He was as good as I've seen him," coach Pat Riley said. Center Shaquille O'Neal had a relatively meaningless 20 points and 10 rebounds, and stayed in foul trouble. "He needs to make the adjustment and keep his arms lower," Riley said. Guard Dwayne Wade scored 25 points, but none in the fourth quarter. New Jersey was 9-for-22 on three-pointers, taking advantage of another Heat weakness. Miami allowed opponents to shoot .395 on three-pointers, which ranked 12th among the 16 first-round playoff teamsNew Jersey took away home court from the Heat with a victory in the Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1, but the main issue for the Nets in Wednesday's Game 2 is the status of Richard Jefferson 's sprained right ankle. "I'm very confident I can deal with quite a bit of pain. I feel that I can deal with more pain than most individuals," said Jefferson. "I played for 2-1/2 weeks with a torn ligament in my wrist. I feel confident if there's a way for me to play even with some pain -- a lot of pain -- I could go." Jefferson landed awkwardly in the third quarter and left for the locker room. And he said there was absolutely no reason to even try to return to Game 1. "We were up 24," Jefferson noted. They got off to a scintillating start and withstood everything that came against them.

NBA: Second Round Should be an Instant Classic

By Michael Rothman

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer 

 The second round of the 2006 NBA playoffs has the chance to be one of the closest and best rounds in recent history. Three of the four series should go at least six games, with the fourth including “King James” and the powerhouse Detroit Pistons. Not to blow my own horn, but only a Phoenix comeback against the Lakers kept my first round predictions from going 8-0. So here we go, get the number of your local sportsbook handy, and lets check out the Conference Semifinals  Championship.  

Western Conference

 #1 Spurs vs. #4 Mavericks 

This is really #1 vs. #2, but by now we all know the storyline behind the division rule, so I’ll skip that argument. This is truly a series to make some money if you are looking to gamble. The Spurs pulled out of game one 87-85, while being favored by 5 points. If I were a gambling man, and that I am, I would absolutely take the team getting points in each game. This series is destined to go seven and in a close fashion. Don’t think Game One was a fluke. I would even be inclined to take Dallas straight up in Game Two. Tim Duncan looked like the old Timmy, scoring 31 points and grabbing 13 boards, but this type of play might not last with his recent injury trouble. In summation, I still like the Spurs’ bench with Michael Finley, and I still like the Spurs to take the series in seven.  

#2 Suns vs. #6 Clippers

 OK Phoenix. You ruined my bid for a perfect first round, but you guys are going down in round two. The Suns are favored by 6 points for Monday’s Game One, which I think is terribly inflated. The Clippers are a much more complete team than the Lakers. If Phoenix struggled with the one-man show of the Lakers, what are they going to do against Elton Brand and company, which includes veteran star Sam Cassell. Cassell was brought in for just this reason: to win playoff games. Cassell averaged 15 points and five assists per game in the series against the Nuggets and is a proven winner. The Suns expelled way too much energy in the first round, with their three-game comeback against the Lakers. If you are about sports betting, do yourself a favor and put your money on the Clippers in game one. This series will be another nail biter; Clippers in six. 

Eastern Conference

 #1 Pistons vs. #4 Cleveland 

Here we have the only easy series to predict. The Pistons are the overwhelming favorite to win it all, and they look like it too. They blew out the Cavaliers in game one, 113-86. This series could turn out to be a slaughter. Lebron was held to only 22 points and averaged less than 20 points per game during the regular season against the Pistons. You get the feeling that the only way the Cavaliers can win a game in this series is to have Lebron go absolutely nuts, which won’t happen against a defense like Detroit’s. With this series, I don’t care how many points the Pistons are favored by; take the Pistons and they will cover the spread. They only covered the spread by 17 points on Sunday. This series will not be close, especially if the pistons go 15 for 22 from three point land again. Pistons in five. 

 #2 Heat vs. #3 Nets 

This is another incredibly hard series to predict, but it’s what I get paid for. Both of these teams really struggled in the first round against inferior opponents. Shaq showed flashes of brilliance in the Heat series but also showed his age. But Shaq is still Shaq and still leads the league in field goal percentage at 60%, which will help the Heat to step up in this series. Shaq also upped his rebounds from 9.2 to 10.8 in the first round, which should continue to give Miami second chance points. Even with this, I think the five points the Heat are giving up in Game One might be too many. Vince Carter increased his points average by more than five in the first round all the way up to 29.2 per,  Game and I think the Nets could shock the Heat with a Game One victory. Take the points and take the Nets in this series. Nets in seven.

Chances for Winning by the Losers

By Jeff Zell

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

 

It is a catastrophe that in professional sports, a non-winning record can set the table for a legitimate shot at a world title.

 

In baseball, it has come close (see 2005 San Diego Padres, 1973 NY Mets). In the NFL, only two .500 teams have made the playoffs since 1991 (1991 NYJ, 2004 STL). In the NBA, however, it has been the norm to find teams with a losing record compete in late April and into May.

 

Below, a table of the number of .500 win percentage teams, the number of first round games they have won, and the number of series they have gone on to win.

 

First Round Playoff Stats Last 10 Years
Year	Teams at .500 or under	Total first round games won	Series Won
1996	2	2	0
1997	3	2	0
1998	1	2	0
1999	1	1	0
2000	0	0	0
2001	1	1	0
2002	0	0	0
2003	0	0	0
2004	4	4	0
2005	0	0	0
2006	3

Courtesy: Basketball-Reference.com

 

Parody just hasn’t existed in the NBA playoffs. These 15 teams in the last 10 years have combined to win just 12 playoff games and have never advanced. In 2004, four teams in the East had the shot and surely one could pull off the upset? Not even the four vs. five could do it.

 

The last time a team with a losing record entered the playoffs and won a Series was 1988. Then, the Seattle Supersonics boasted a 39-43 record as the 7-seed and made it all the way to the conference finals. They upset both Dallas and Houston, before being swept by Pat Riley’s Los Angeles Lakers.  Since Seattle, a total of 31 teams have entered the playoffs with a record at or below .500. And these teams are 0-31 in playoff series.

 

So, how good of a chance do Milwaukee (40-42), Chicago (41-41) and Indiana (41-41) have this year?  I’m not going to say “none,” because that’s why they play the game—but let’s delve into these match-ups.

 

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Milwaukee

One-seeds haven’t lost since 1999. But there was a technicality about that year: First, 1999 was the NBA lockout year, and only 50 regular season games were played. Second, three other teams had the same 33-17 record, but Miami won by a tiebreaker.

 

In a full 82-game season, it was the 1994 Denver Nuggets who upset the top-seeded Supersonics to advance to the second round.

 

With Flip Saunders at the helm, we’ve seen the Pistons play looser offensively, but still maintaining impressive defense—leading them to their best regular season record ever (64-18). Don’t worry about the nonsense concerning Ben Wallace not getting along with Flip: This team is focused when it comes to the playoffs.

 

Having said this, Milwaukee has their hands full. Let’s just look at player vs. player matchups.

 

	Detroit	Milwaukee	Advantage
PG	Billups	Ford	Detroit
SG	Hamilton	Redd	Detroit
SF	Prince	Simmons	Detroit
PF	R. Wallace	Bogut	Detroit
C	B. Wallace	Magloire	Detroit

 

 

Billups will substitute size for speed and can dominate Ford. Hamilton is a workhorse. Prince is undoubtedly better than Simmons. And I’ll just point out the experience from the front court to suffice my argument for the Wallaces.

 

To make matters worse, the only type of success they had against Detroit was when they played Toni Kukoc at the three. Kukoc is already banged up and will miss the first game, so his health will be a definite factor.

Prediction: Pistons in a sweep

 

(2) Miami vs. (7) Chicago

Chicago is the hottest of the East’s bottom-3, finishing 12-2 in their final 14 to slip into the show. They had a similar run in the final month of the season last year, winning 15 of their last 19 games. The Bulls’ only win against the Heat in the regular season came back on April 15 when the Heat rested most of their stars.

 

In the playoffs, it comes down to defense and though the “Baby Bulls” are young, they do buckle down, leading the NBA for the second straight season in defensive field-goal percentage (.426).

 

Offensively, the Bulls’ patented “drive-and-kick” out game has given opposing teams a hard time. Ben Gordon ranks 2nd in the Eastern Conference, hitting 43.9-percent from 3-point land, and point-guard Kirk Hinrich has shot 42.9-percent from behind the arc in his last five games.  

 

Although the Heat have been locked into the No. 2 spot since basically January, I don’t see them having trouble kicking into high gear. Even when the Bulls shut down Wade in their meetings this year (12.3 ppg), the Heat have found a way to win.

 

The Bulls have no answer for Shaq, who had 14 points and 6 rebounds in just 20 minutes of action on April 15.

Prediction: Heat in 5

 

(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Indiana

 

This might very well be the best shot for a team at the .500 mark in the regular season to win a Series. The Nets came from the weak Atlantic Division that sent no other teams beside themselves to the playoffs. The two teams have similar defensive work ethics, as they are 5^th and 6^th in points allowed, respectively, in the NBA. The interesting thing about this series is the way they view each other: New Jersey players have said the Pacers are a good transition and look to slow it down, while Indiana players have said the exact same thing about the Nets! Wow, this should be a fun series to watch!

 

Jermaine O’Neal looks to be healthy into the playoffs, having played 30-plus minutes in his final 11 regular season games, but I don’t foresee him being the difference. The difference must come from the defense side of the ball, in particular, the ability to stop Vince Carter.

 

Peja Stojakovic and Stephen Jackson must play top-notch to pull the upset.

 

I have a feeling this series will go seven. The Nets were 29-12 at home, fourth-best home record in the Eastern conference, so that’s the way I lean.

Prediction: Nets in 7

 

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The only Constant in Life is Change

By Michael Rothman

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Well, this counts for everything but the National Basketball Association. The first problem we had this post-season was the division rule, which will leave the Spurs to play the Mavericks in the second round, all due to a technicality of being in the same division. This rule alone should constitute uproar from the fans and needs to be addressed immediately. Now, we have another significance issue.

We have the fact that the MVP Award is announced and decided before the NBA playoffs are over. It is decided on before the first round is even over! What’s the result? It was announced Wednesday that Steve Nash will win his second straight MVP Award.

Now I am not arguing that Nash is not worthy of his second MVP. Actually Nash supporters are going to say that he had a better statistical year this season than last season, when he was the clear choice for MVP. Sure, Nash upped his points from 15.5 per game last year to 18.8 per this year, but last year was last year. More importantly, Kobe Bryant and Lebron James were not in the playoffs last year and did not come even close to the caliber of seasons they each had this year.  What I am arguing is that other players are just more deserving of the award.

On Wednesday night, Nash got posterized like no one has ever seen before. Who was the player that abused Nash so horribly, you ask? Oh it was Kobe Bryant, another top candidate for MVP and someone more worthy of the honor than Nash. More than just making Nash look like a fool on national television, Bryant’s dunk in the fourth quarter sealed the victory for the Lakers over the Suns. This now leads us back to our issue at hand.

The Suns might not make it out of the first round of the playoffs. After the Lakers’ 93-90 victory Wednesday night, the series is even at one game a piece. Now, the Lakers are heading back to Los Angeles with home-court advantage and control of the series. By the way the Lakers are 27-14 at home this year and we all know Kobe is going to turn it up a notch for the home crowd. If this round is the last stop for the Suns, where does that leave Nash? At home with his MVP trophy, even after he couldn’t beat the seventh-seeded Lakers in the opening round. Remember way back when Charles Barkley was actually one of the first MVPs not to win the NBA Championship? That was in 1993 and seems like ages ago now. Back then the MVP committee got things right, and even more ironic is that Barkley won the award while playing for the Suns, Nash’s current team.

More over, if the Suns do in fact lose to the Lakers in the first round, the case grows even stronger that Kobe is the MVP. Do I have to read the laundry list of accomplishments to you? The man scored 35 points per game during the regular season, not to mention getting an overachieving Lakers team back into the playoffs with a record of 45-37. And now he might get them into the second round as a seventh seed. Without Kobe, this team would already be planning for the Draft Lottery.

And what about Lebron James? The Cleveland Cavs are the fourth seed in the East. Let me repeat, the Cleveland Cavs are the fourth seed in the East. Don’t forget that the Cavs also won 50 games this year. This is an achievement in itself. Let’s not forget Lebron’s playoff debut; he only scored a triple double against the Wizards. This is exactly why the playoffs have to count toward the MVP voting, because the playoffs are where legends are made.

Don’t get me wrong, Nash is a nice player who had a nice season. But aren’t MVPs supposed to be spectacular players who have spectacular seasons. Before you answer that question, answer this one. If you take Kobe away from the Lakers and Nash away from the Suns, which team suffers more? The answer to that is your 2006 MVP. I’ll give you a little hint. It’s not Steve Nash.

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Tempers flare as Bulls pound Heat

Instead of looking like his old self, Shaquille O'Neal simply looked old, flustered and frustrated.

O'Neal had one of his worst playoff performances, and the Chicago Bulls took advantage, beating the Miami Heat 109-90 in a game that got heated in the end.

The Bulls pulled within 2-1 in the first-round series and host Game Four on Monday (HK time).

"I guess we were just out of it today," O'Neal said.

He finished with eight points and four rebounds. He had one basket through the first three quarters and scored six meaningless points in the fourth, narrowly missing his career playoff low. O'Neal had seven points against Houston on April 19, 2004.

After averaging 24.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the first two games, O'Neal picked up his third foul just three minutes into the second quarter and spent the rest of the half on the bench.

Miami's James Posey was ejected with three minutes 15 seconds left in the game after knocking down Kirk Hinrich on a fast break and receiving a flagrant foul.

Six seconds later, Antoine Walker fouled out and got called for a technical foul. So did Udonis Haslem, who served a one-game suspension for throwing his mouthpiece toward an official in the series opener.

"He thought we had an advantage and wanted to make a hard foul," Hinrich said of Posey. "It's just part of the game. Just got to take it."

Posey said he was simply trying to get back on defense, and Hinrich did not see him.

"He didn't see me, first of all," said Posey, who faces possible suspension. "So anything like that - a guy coming from the side - a collision will happen. That's all it was."

Miami coach Pat Riley did not rush to his players' defense afterward.

"Maybe something happened at the other end, but I don't like that," he said of Posey's foul.

"There's got to be some dignity in the game. The game was a very physical game. Both teams were playing hard."

Riley added: "When you're getting your (butt) kicked, you take it. You get on to Game Four; that's what it's about ...we began to look at the officials. That's something we don't want to do."

Chicago's Ben Gordon scored 24 points, and Hinrich finished with 22 points and 11 assists. Luol Deng added 21 points, and Andres Nocioni had 19 points and nine rebounds.

Miami Heat takes charge of Bulls

Same old story: With the Miami Heat in trouble, Dwyane Wade saved the day.

Wade hit a spinning jumper in the lane with 1:04 remaining to halt a frantic Chicago rally. He also blocked Ben Gordon 's layup with 26 seconds left to ensure Miami would beat the Bulls 115-108 last night to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven Eastern Conference championship tournament first-round series.

Jason Williams and Shaquille O'Neal each had 22 points for Miami, which saw a 20-point third-quarter lead cut to four with 1:15 remaining. But Wade added 21 points, seven assists, five rebounds and four steals for the Heat, who tied a franchise playoff record with six players in double figures.

Antoine Walker added 17 points and 10 rebounds for the Heat.